Hear Ye! Since 1998.
30
Oct 22
Sun

Weekly Report: October 30, 2022

Observations

  • It’s school enrollment season and we have been busy deciphering the California school system. Here’s how we understand how it works (an understanding that may be faulty). You live in a school district that covers a certain geographic zone. The district is divided into neighborhoods. Each neighborhood has a public elementary school that gives enrollment priority to kids living in that neighborhood. While you can still apply to a neighborhood school outside of your neighborhood via what’s called a “School of Choice” application, it will be on a “space available” basis. Additionally, some schools in the district are not designated to a specific neighborhood and can be applied to with a School of Choice application. Selections are done by lottery. There are also private schools that can be applied to, but they are expensive and may impact priority if you later decide to transfer your child to a public school in the future (e.g. a quasi-selective public school).
  • Public schools are funded in large part by property taxes. Each year, property owners pay a little more than 1% of their assessed property value to the county, and this is used to fund various things. Through a quirk of the system, the assessed property value is basically tied to when the property was last sold, and modestly increased each year. This means that some people who have been living in their house for decades are paying property tax based on an assessed value that is significantly below market.
  • This also means that property prices are driven tremendously by what school district and neighborhood a house is in.
  • The system in Australia is different, and the boundaries are not so rigid. It’s not unusual to start applying to schools for kids when they are born. I recall my parents trying to get me into Year 3 of a particular school. My dad happened to know the brother-in-law of the state premier at the time (he was a patient), and somehow obtained a letter of recommendation from the premier that got sent to the school. Whether it was the letter or the results of my aptitude test, I don’t know, but I got in. Like my dad, I am a first-generation migrant, but unlike him, I have no such connections here. We’re anxious.
  • The IRS is increasing the 401(k) contribution limit to $22,500 for 2023 (from $20,500 this year).

Articles

Books

  • Smart Brevity (Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, Roy Schwartz)
    “Smart brevity” is what the folks at news company Axios call their writing style. Known for its newsletters, Axios reports news concisely through a series of “axiomatic” headings and bullet points. The style has its many haters— typically journalists who lament the inevitable loss of nuance and thoughtfulness when you attempt to distill everything down to its essence — but I find the writing style pretty compelling for specific use cases. Long form writing still has its place (and the authors point that out), but I think this style of writing can be very effective in the business world where people’s attention and bandwidth are limited, and chat has displaced email as the favored medium of communicating. The book itself is, true to its name, quick and easy to read — about the only type of book I can read these days with young kids. The hard work is in practicing and eventually internalizing the writing style (“I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.”). Recommended.

Movies & TV

  • House of the Dragon (Season 1)
    Wasn’t expecting it to be groundbreaking like its predecessor, and it’s not, but it has been good enough to earn a spot in our weekly routine. Season 1 is dialog-heavy with mostly single-threaded stories that would fill the royalty pages of a medieval tabloid. Strong end to the season, and a long wait for Season 2 in 2024.
  • Star Trek: Lower Decks (Season 3)
    Another entertaining season!

Charts, Images & Videos

A 20 year high

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23
Oct 22
Sun

Weekly Report: October 23, 2022

Observations

Childcare is eye-wateringly expensive in the Bay Area. We pay our pre-school almost $5,000 a month to take care of our kids during the day. Sadly, that is not unusual here. And while we really like our pre-school, it’s not exactly a celebrity pre-school where kids get visits from former first ladies.

This level of expense means that, apart from a decent amount of ethnic diversity at our pre-school, the families with kids there are otherwise remarkably (but perhaps unsurprisingly) homogeneous: two parents in their mid-30s to early-40s who are both working professionals in good jobs with one, two, or maybe three children. A good deal of them, like us, grew up overseas.* The street turns into a parking lot for Teslas during drop off and pick up times.

We’re now going through a phase of life where we’re attending 4th and 5th birthday parties almost every weekend. This is a new experience for us. I quickly realized that these parties are always well-attended. It’s not because 4 and 5 year olds are inseparable best friends that are good at showing up for each other, but because it’s an easy way for parents to keep their kids occupied for a couple of hours while someone else has figured out how to feed and entertain them. The price of admission is a gift that you have probably regifted from someone who attended your own child’s birthday and regifted something that had already been regifted to theirs. There are only so many good gift ideas.

It’s difficult to avoid the temptation of comparing birthday parties. Each party is a public display of time, money, and by extension in an observing parent’s irrational and paranoid mind, love.

Every weekend, my mind spirals into the same pattern as I walk by yet another party with a bouncing castle: Am I doing enough for my child? Do I not love my child enough? Is my child going to think they aren’t loved because they didn’t have a bouncing castle? Why aren’t we ever invited to the parties with the bouncing castles? Or the Oscar-style party favor bags? Or the tonnage of balloon decorations that I’m sure are the cause for the nation’s helium shortage? And so on and so on.

I also find these parties awkward. Some families invite the whole class and maybe we know a handful of the parents there. Ten years ago, given the homogenous bunch we are, we probably would have got along just fine had we met at some random party. But it’s next to impossible to have a conversation of substance with the constant interruptions of a pre-schooler and their toddler sibling.

Also, my parental mind suspects that everyone is judging everyone else at these events. This part is not paranoia.

To wit, last weekend’s party. It was at a park that we had never been to before. New is good, as far as our kids are concerned, and they immediately raced off to find the nearest muddy puddle to jump into. The party was well-attended, very nicely done, and Formula 1-themed with liberal, unlicensed use of Ferrari insignia sprawled across six tables. It was immediately clear to us that these parents loved their child more than we loved ours.

Nonetheless, not all parents were so easily impressed. Shortly after we arrived we witnessed an exchange between one guest’s father and the birthday boy’s mother.

Guest’s Father: “Do you have a vegetarian table?”

There is a moment of silence while the birthday boy’s mother — a Persian woman who does not appear to be someone who is normally lost for words — is seen visibly struggling with how to respond.

“… no.” she finally says.

The guest’s father makes an equally visible annoyed face back.

The mother regains her footing and shoots back with thinly masked disdain: “Sorry I, um, forgot that children could be vegetarian.”*

Later in the party, the same father decides to share his perspective about an activity table where the kids are busy submerging a fleet of knockoff matchbox cars in a rainbow of glitter glue.

The vegetarian father, making a show of examining his frizzy wool sweater with disgust, sidles up to another person, who happens to be the birthday boy’s father.

“Glitter glue is the worst! You never, ever, ever give kids glitter! I’m going to leave here with glitter on me!”

The birthday boy’s father is unapologetic. “Well it doesn’t help you’re wearing a glitter magnet.”

As the party begins to wrap up, party favor bags are distributed. In the bag is a whistle. Seconds later, every kid discovers the joy of their Favorite New Toy. And also in that moment, everyone is judging the birthday boy’s parents.

When we leave, we pass by another party that has been setting set up for the past three hours and whose costumed guests are finally starting to arrive. It is a 3 year old’s birthday and it features freshly grilled food, drinks in four huge Yeti coolers, and the nation’s missing helium supply.

I pull my daughter back as she attempts to crash the party.

“Why can’t we go to that one daddy?”

* I literally only just realized why the word “abroad” is used more frequently in the U.S. to describe foreign lands than the word “overseas”, which is far more common in Australia. It is probably because, in Australia, every foreign country is across a sea.

** L’esprit de l’escalier: “Yes, but your kid is the only one who’s vegetarian so he’s going to be sitting all by himself.”

Further Observations

  • Series I Bonds purchased by October 31, 2022 will yield 9.62% for the next 6 months. This yield is expected to drop to ~6% in November. There’s been a lot made online about purchasing I bonds before November to lock in the 9.62% rate, but given annual purchase limits, there’s something to be said about waiting. This is because the interest rate on I bonds is composed of a fixed rate and a variable inflation rate. While the fixed rate has been 0% for the last 3 years and <1% for the last 15 years, interest rates have risen sharply over the last 6 months and any fixed rate above 0% is good for the 30 year life of the bond – which may result in a better return over time versus buying a bond today with a 0% fixed rate component.
  • As the CCP Congress closes, China enters a new, troubling era. Several friends, some of whom have spent many years of their lives and careers working in or with China, now express a reluctance to even physically set foot in the country. Whereas the China my generation knew while growing up seemed full of promise and reform, the China my kids will grow up knowing will be darker.

Articles

Movies & TV

  • Thor: Love & Thunder (Disney+)
    Reasonably amusing, but not particularly memorable. Actually fell asleep during the final fight scene (#parentlife). 3/5.

Charts, Images & Videos

Source: Reddit (r/wallstreetbets)

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16
Oct 22
Sun

Weekly Report: October 16, 2022

Observations

When I was in my mid-20s, an older cousin of mine decided he had to own an expensive sports car at least once in his life. When his shiny new Mercedes SLK AMG convertible arrived, I eagerly accepted his invitation to take a ride with him. It was a thrilling experience. The monthly lease payments on the thing were more than my salary at the time, and there were two things I remember most about that experience. The first was the seats, which were lowset and snug. As the engine revved to life, the seat belts automatically tightened — a wholly unexpected, but gentle and comforting embrace that signaled: this was something special. The second was that, as we pulled up to our first traffic light with the top down, it started to rain. Then the lights turned green. The hard-top roof only took about 15 seconds to close, but as we sat there immobile, waiting for salvation, we could only pretend not to notice everyone around smirking at us with a mix of withering ridicule and annoyance.

I was recently reminded of that experience in a surprising way. My one year old loves to give hugs, but only to his mother. He gives me no such affection. Occasionally, I need to take him from his mother’s arms. Upon seeing me approach with outstretched hands, he will yelp and bury himself into her, arms wrapped tightly around her shoulders. Susanne describes the experience as “heavenly”. My experience is different. Once the limpet is pried away from his lifegiver, I am instead left with a screaming, writhing infant who is doing his best to kick me.

So I was surprised earlier this week when I was out walking with him in the neighborhood (or rather carrying him, since it is impossible to get anywhere when every rock, flower and poisonous berry by the sidewalk warrants an inspection). Normally outward facing, he suddenly turned around, buried his face in my shoulder, and squeezed tight.

It didn’t take me long to realize that this was because we were approaching a house with a lawn full of particularly creepy animatronic halloween decorations, and he did not like it. As we passed a zombie struggling to take a stake out of its chest, he squeezed even tighter in silent terror.

For him, it was a death grip. But for me it was, as advertised, heavenly.

Taking advantage of the situation, I walked back and forth between the zombie and a skeleton, with Alex’s hug tightening in inverse proportion to our distance from the undead.

After I had my fill of manufactured affection at the expense of my child’s mental health, we continued our walk. A few feet later, I passed a skeletal jack-in-the-box, which suddenly leapt 8 feet into the air and towered over the sidewalk. I screamed like a baby. Alex giggled, and I could only pretend to laugh in response to the smirks of passers-by.

Further Observations

  • A friend I was texting with believes the Ukraine war will drag on for a long, long time. His reasoning was that it’s the scenario that’s most in the United States’ interest: while it continues, it saps Russia economically and militarily, weakens Europe relative to the U.S., and strengthens NATO (of which the U.S. is the most influential member)… and all at the relatively low cost of shipping materiel to Ukraine. As long as tactical nukes don’t make an appearance, I can’t say I disagree with him. Just because it’s a cynical take doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
  • Voting by mail is so convenient. My vote-by-mail pack came in this week, and I already mailed it in. No need to line up at a polling booth on a Tuesday!
  • The inflation numbers came out on Thursday and they are still high (8.2% y/y versus 8.3% y/y for last month).
  • Kwasi Kwarteng was fired as the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer after 39 days on the job. That is only the second shortest tenure for that position in modern UK history. The dubious honor of the shortest tenure belongs to Iain Macleod, who died in office only after 31 days.

Articles

Books

  • Home Game: An Accidental Guide to Fatherhood (Michael Lewis)
    A laugh-out-loud funny, all-too-true compilation of personal anecdotes on fatherhood by my favorite non-fiction author that makes me feel just a little better about my own questionable parenting skills.

Charts, Images & Videos

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9
Oct 22
Sun

Weekly Report: October 9, 2022

Observations

  • Interest rates are up, so bank savings account interest rates are up as well. Given how long ZIRP has been in place, this feels unusual, but back in my uni days, I had my savings in an ING Direct online savings account that was paying 7% interest. That seemed normal at the time. I didn’t understand how interest rates worked, so I thought it was just the “normal” rate of interest for an online bank.
  • I don’t know why it took me so long, but I discovered this week that you can buy treasury bills, notes, and bonds directly from the U.S. Treasury as a consumer. These are all debt instruments of varying maturity periods backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government. Here’s the significance: First, these instruments currently offer better rates than any bank account or certificate of deposit (CD). At Ally Bank, a 12 month CD currently pays 3.1% APR. A 52-week T-Bill currently pays at 4.134%. Second, interest from these instruments is exempt from state and local taxes. Third, they’re very easy to buy – you open a Treasury Direct account, link your bank account, and Treasury will automatically debit your account upon purchase, and credit your account upon maturity. The main downside is that it’s not easy to get rid of treasury instruments if you don’t want to hold them to maturity. You can sell them after a 45-day minimum holding period, but you need to transfer them to another institution first. Here’s more information.
  • If you’ve bought Series I Bonds (now in vogue given the current 9.62% rates), you will already have a Treasury Direct account. We hold some of our emergency cash in I Bonds.
  • My youngest learned how to say his own name this week!

Articles

Charts, Images & Videos

Spotted near home: “XRP” and “F*** the SEC”
Filming aerial scenes for the $1.5B grossing Top Gun: Maverick

On Twitter

Warning: Lots of loud swearing👇

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2
Oct 22
Sun

Weekly Report: October 2, 2022

Observations

  • I received my “Official Voter Information Guide” this week for the November 8 midterm elections. It’ll be the first general election I’m eligible to vote in. The guide is 127 pages, with information about 7 propositions for new California laws (including the text of those laws, legislative analysis, and arguments and rebuttals from each side), candidate statements for state and federal office, information about various California Supreme Court and Courts of Appeal justices to be confirmed, and information on how to vote. That’s a lot of information to process if you want to make an informed decision about everything that’s up for a vote, but it’s great that it’s there.

Articles

Charts, Images & Videos

Eurozone inflation
#agedlikemilk

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25
Sep 22
Sun

Weekly Report: September 25, 2022

Observations

  • The Fed raised rates by 0.75% to an upper bound of 3.25% this week. The market expects further raises to 4.25% or 4.50% by the end of this year, and the market reacted accordingly. The U.S. dollar continues its inexorable run upwards against every other major world currency. The yen hit a 24 year low (146 JPY to the dollar), prompting the Bank of Japan to intervene and prop up their currency for the first time in as many years. The pound hit a 37 year low (falling to $1.084), and the euro a 20 year low (falling to $0.9689). The Australian dollar “only” hit a 2 year low (at $0.651), having sharply plummeted to under $0.57 during the early days of the pandemic. Interest rate differentials will encourage further USD inflows, which will continue until U.S. interest rates pull back, and a recession bites. (If the recession is global, which I think is likely, the USD may continue rallying for a while due to flight from risk.) If the past is any indication, the time the Fed starts cutting rates will roughly coincide with the start of a crash and subsequent recession. Susanne and I have been slowly buying Australian dollars and Danish kroner (which is pegged to the euro) on the bet that these historically low rates won’t be a high watermark, and things will recover in a few years.
  • A second company fell prey to a high profile hack in as many weeks: Take Two (which actually got hacked twice). While details about the Take Two hacks are sparse, I’d wager that, like the Uber incident, it all started with a social engineering attack.
  • Susanne is already regretting telling me about this, but KOKS, a Michelin-starred restaurant in the picturesque Faroe Islands, is temporarily moving to the small village of Ilimanaq, Greenland next summer. If you want to dine inside the Arctic Circle, you have to buy a package deal, which comes with a boat transfer through a fjord from nearby Ilulissat, and a hotel night (KOKS will also feed you breakfast). It sounds incredible, but the logistics of pulling off a trip there are imposing.

Articles

Charts, Images & Videos

Source: New York Times
Data: YCharts, Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

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18
Sep 22
Sun

Weekly Report: September 19, 2022

Observations

  • Inflation numbers remained high this month. The market expects the Fed to continue hiking interest rates at a good pace and reacted accordingly. Mortgage rates rose above 6% for the first time since 2008. I think the pain of a sharp recession is still to come as the much of the world has become used to record low interest rates for most of the last decade. Higher rates have a knock on effect that will catalyze a downturn, causing a stronger USD, higher debt servicing burdens, decreasing demand, drying liquidity, and slowing the economy. Unfortunately, the worst is yet to come.
  • Adobe agreed to acquire Figma for $20B in cash and stock which, at signing, is the largest private tech acquisition in history. (In 2014, Whatsapp agreed to be sold for $16B, which rose to $22B at closing as Facebook stock rose.) Adobe shareholders and Figma users didn’t love the news, but early Figma shareholders did.
  • Andor, the latest Star Wars series, is out on Disney+ next Wednesday and the reviews are apparently excellent.

Articles

Movies & TV

  • Star Trek: Lower Decks (Season 3)
    Started watching this season. The series is a lot of fun. And somehow, they still keep it canon!

Restaurants

  • Bluestone Lane Cafe (Los Altos)
    Billed as an Australian-style cafe, we go there occasionally for a weekend brunch. The food is a facsimile of a Sydney breakfast, but I’ll take what I can get. (They sell fairy bread there but use sprinkles instead of 100s and 1000s. Heresy!) Bonus: two free Tesla charging stations. 3/5.

Charts & Images

Our 4th blackout this year that has lasted more than 30 minutes. This time happened just as we were about to bathe the kids. No power means no hot water.
Mortgage rates. Source: New York Times

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11
Sep 22
Sun

Weekly Report: September 11, 2022

Observations

  • A heatwave lasting half the week in the Bay Area saw temperatures hit an all-time high of 47ºC. For us, temperatures exceeded 40ºC on 3 days this week, which makes working from home challenging in the afternoon as we don’t have air conditioning (typical for homes here). The southwestern U.S. is currently in a drought that is the worst on record (and the records — tree rings —go back 1,200 years).
  • Queen Elizabeth II died on Thursday. She led an incredible, unique life and felt particularly well respected and admired, despite having to carry all of the colonial baggage that the British monarchy brings. In the words of former President Trump, “There was nobody like her!” King Charles III now takes her place.
  • I was barely old enough to vote “yes” when Australia held a referendum about whether to become a republic at the turn of the millennium. The “no” votes prevailed, but the margin was only 55/45. I suspect that the next time they hold such a referendum, it will be within my lifetime and the answer will be different.
  • Sunday marks the 21st anniversary of 9/11. I’d say that every 20-30 years a generational event comes along and changes the world. The pandemic, of course, is the most recent one. 9/11 was the first in my living memory and I’m sure at some point my kids will ask me, “What were you doing when you found out about 9/11?” The answer is that I woke up to the news that morning. I think someone had texted me to turn on the TV, and when I did, I saw the shocking images of the towers burning. I was in Sydney, so it had all happened while I was asleep. After being glued to the TV for as long as I could, I left for work. I was a web developer doing an industry placement at EDS at the time, working on the Commonwealth Bank’s website. I grabbed an old walkman, popped on earphones, tuned into a news radio station, and hopped on the bus, and then the train. It was a pretty sombre, quiet commute, and you could tell the news was hanging in the air with everyone.

Articles

Movies & TV

  • House of the Dragon (Season 1)
    My wife and I started dating at about the same time as Game of Thrones premiered, and it became a weekly ritual for us (together with eating take out from Su Hong, now called Chef Kwan’s in Menlo Park). Despite GoT’s series-destroying final season, we decided to work House of the Dragon into our weekly routine for old times’ sake. We’ve seen the first 3 episodes, and the jury is still out on whether it’ll stay in our weekly routine.

Hotels

  • Courtyard by Marriott Redwood City (Redwood City, CA)
    I had an unused free hotel night that was going to expire next month, so I decided to work out of a hotel room on one of the days where it got really hot. I was just there for the air conditioning so I didn’t stay for the night, but it’s a basic, no-frills hotel in the middle of nowhere.

Charts & Images

Source: New York Times

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28
Jan 22
Fri

Hear Ye! turns 24

At this point I only run this blog to make this annual post.

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9
Jan 22
Sun

Cities over the last 365 days (2021)

Last year’s famous last words: “COVID. 2021 should be better!” I guess it was a better year for travel… but not by much!

Copenhagen, Denmark *
Blåvand, Denmark
Velje, Denmark †
Billund, Denmark †
Marielyst, Denmark
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA

All places had overnight visits, unless marked with †.

* Multiple entries, non-consecutive days.
† Daytrip only.
‡ New country or territory.

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28
Jan 21
Thu

Hear Ye! is 23

I have gradually come to terms with the limitations of my time these days, and my rather modest goal for this year to write at least one substantial post on this site.

One day I will get back to a more regular cadence of posting!

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11
Jan 21
Mon

Cities over the last 365 days (2020)

2020 travel in a word: COVID. 2021 should be better!

Los Angeles, CA

All places had overnight visits, unless marked with †.

* Multiple entries, non-consecutive days.
† Daytrip only.
‡ New country or territory.

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28
Jan 20
Tue

Hear Ye! turns Twenty-Two

Yep. This site is squarely Gen Z.

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12
Jan 20
Sun

Cities over the last 365 days (2019)

Here’s the 2019 edition of this list. Got in 67k miles of flying – a recovery from 2018, but still a far cry from pre-fatherhood. Most interesting part was getting to visit 5 new countries! Not much planned for 2020, but we’ll see.

Singapore *
Bali, Indonesia ‡
Doha, Qatar
Copenhagen, Denmark *
London, UK
Helsinki, Finland ‡
Tallinn, Estonia † ‡
Taipei, Taiwan ‡
Kaoshiung, Taiwan
San Diego, CA
Sydney, Australia
Palm Springs, CA
Kyiv, Ukraine ‡

All places had overnight visits, unless marked with †.

* Multiple entries, non-consecutive days.
† Daytrip only.
‡ New country or territory.

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31
Dec 19
Tue

Year in Review 2019

It’s the last year of the decade! Happy New Year! In a few moments, we leave the 2010s and enter the 20s. And so I’m taking a few moments for a bit of introspection about the year just past and prognostication about the year to come.

But first, what happened over the last decade, in a paragraph? Most of my 30s has been spent in this decade. In the first half, I spent a lot of time doing two things: working and traveling. The happy confluence of discovering travel hacking and being of the age where friends were getting married meant I got to attend weddings in 10 countries! The second half of the decade was far more personally eventful: some big life milestones (mortgagee, started a family), 3 startups (sold one, left one, still working on one), did some legal consulting with a bunch of clients, and ended up going full time employed with one. The second half was also significantly more stressful.

2019

Travels. We took a trip in February to catch up with our extended family in Singapore and Copenhagen, with a side trip to Bali where we stayed at the amazing Amankila. While in Copenhagen, I also managed to squeeze a quick side trip to London, Helsinki and Tallinn. Domestically, we spent a weekend in San Diego for Susanne’s birthday, and some time in Palm Springs with Susanne’s parents for a break. Later in the year, we all went back to Copenhagen for Susanne’s dad’s 70th birthday. Work trips were unusually varied. A crazy deal took Susanne to Montreal twice, and Stuart went to Taipei, Kaoshiung, Sydney and Kyiv.

Work. Susanne had her highest billing month this year. I started a new job at Pango, which is a small company headquartered in Redwood City that sells products to protect consumer privacy and security, including a VPN product that has hundreds of millions of users. I continue to help out with Aerofiler, and the company landed its first 10 customers this year. We exhibited at CLOC Sydney and the Sydney-based team visited Silicon Valley as a part of UNSW’s 10x program.

2020

Politics. Some predictions:

  • Brexit: It’s coming January 31, 2020, this time for sure. Boris has a mandate (strong conviction).
  • Impeachment: Trump will be acquitted by the Senate (absolute conviction).
  • Democratic Presidential Candidate: Biden, probably (weak conviction).
  • US Presidential Election: Trump gets re-elected (medium conviction).

The Economy. The low interest rate environment continues along with asset price inflation. Global debt continues to build, growing a massive powder keg that is in search of a spark. A spark could come in the form of increased interests rates, but central banks have little appetite to be hawkish. Wealth inequality will keep CPI low (all the inflation is in boomer assets and bananas duct-taped to walls, not wage growth for the blue collar worker, despite generationally-low employment rates). All this suggests that low interest rates are here to stay for a long time yet. Trump will try to juice the economy as much as he can to keep it going through to the election. There’s always the chance of a blow up somewhere in the world catalyzing a global crash, but it’s hard to see what that will be at this time (but I guess it always is).

Inequality. The growing wealth inequality continues, and I don’t see any way the trend reverses, short of social unrest and dramatical changes in the political landscape. One pedestrian example of how the gap between the haves and have nots increases: We were doing the maths on owning versus renting a house here, and if you consider the costs of home ownership (mortgage interest, homeowner’s insurance, and property tax), due to the tax deductibility of mortgage interest, we’re only paying slightly more for our house than the 2-bed 1-bath apartment we were renting a few years ago (and rents have since gone up). Additionally, mortgage principal repayments are a form of forced saving, and exposure to capital appreciation has been good in the current economic climate.

Real Estate. I’m expecting the Bay Area market to continue treading water. After 2019’s spate of IPOs, property prices haven’t really moved. The media has reported a bunch of IPOs bombing, but it’s all relative. A bunch of people still made millions – just not as many millions. Except for the poor sods at WeWork not named Adam Neumann. As to which, see the inequality point above.

In the meantime, Denmark’s residential mortgage rates (as low as -0.5%) tempted me to take a look into the Copenhagen market. It turns out that Denmark is pretty xenophobic and that it’s pretty tough to own property unless you know how to properly pronounce the word “hvad”. Luckily, I have access to such an individual, but she thinks that everything is too expensive. I reminded her that I thought property in Menlo Park was too expensive for the last 7 years and look where my prognosticating got us. Not in Menlo Park.

Tech. The IPO I’m most anticipating in 2020 is Airbnb. Assuming their financials hold up (they spent a lot of money on marketing in their last leaked financials), I don’t think the WeWork debacle and Uber disappointment will act as a drag. They’re meant to be profitable or at least profit-able (excluding stock-based comp, which is somewhat misleading but par for the course for private companies around here).

Privacy. Will continue to get a lot of scrutiny and Facebook will continue to be a punching bag. Their reputation when it comes to privacy has been in the muck for some time now. But as always, people will complain, and then keep using it. I think that’s going to be true with any service that has a lot of utility – privacy is a theoretical issue, but your ability to see photos of your friends in exotic locations, the latest Trump tweet, or memes provide an immediate shot of dopamine (or maybe just a dose of FOMO) that just steamrolls it. Indeed, Facebook’s stock is at a high, so they’re continuing to make more money in spite of all that has happened. The only way that changes is that the government breaks it up.

On the privacy regulation front, I’ve been a bit skeptical ever since Ashley Madison happened. The absolute nuclear event for a privacy lawyer is a security breach where all your customer data is exposed to the public. Ashley Madison is a site for people who want to have affairs. They experienced that nuclear event in 2015. Real names, home addresses, search history, and credit card information were all exposed. 60 gigabytes of it (granted, most of it was fake accounts). All of it obviously extremely sensitive. People reportedly committed suicide over the leak. This should have shut them down for good, but the site settled its lawsuits is still alive today. I don’t think that the privacy laws that have been passed in Europe and California since would have changed this much.

We have Alexa, Siri, Google, and Cortana in our homes – always listening. We use devices (mobile phones, cars) that let people we don’t know, know where we are 24/7. No one really seems to care. I mean, truly care. Of course, everyone talks about it, but no one really does much about it.

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8
Jun 19
Sat

Weekly Wrapup – Issue #5

Notes

Tech. WWDC was this week. My takeaways: (1) Apple announced iPadOS, which is essentially a fork of iOS. They’re going the opposite of the way that Windows went, which was to have one unified OS that runs on all device types. (2) The following are getting updates, as usual (noting items that caught my attention): tvOS (new undersea screensavers), watchOS 6, iOS 13 (grant one-time location permissions, Notes app updates, Sign in with Apple, multi-AirPod music sharing), macOS Catalina (iTunes is being replaced by Music, Podcasts, and TV apps, use an iPad as a secondary display or drawing tablet, new Find My app, screen time for desktop). (3) There’s a new Mac Pro and accompanying Pro Display XDR monitor. Seemingly targeted at video editors, the rig is beefy and expensive. Prices start at $6k for the computer (with a 1400W PSU!), $5k for the display (32″ 6K display at a really bright 1600 nits, 4 USB-C ports on the back). The display doesn’t come with a stand. Apple will sell you a stand for $1k.

Sports. At 1-3, the Warriors are in trouble. Maybe they needed Durant after all.

Movie. Always Be My Maybe is pretty enjoyable for a rom com. It’s on Netflix.

TV. Game of Thrones finished a few weeks ago, but the New Yorker published an entertaining interview with Emilia Clarke.

In other news… (1) The DOJ will investigate Apple and Google and the FTC will investigate Amazon and Facebook regarding antitrust. (2) The tariff war continues, with China announcing plans for an “unreliable entities list” in response to the U.S. denying access to American technology for Chinese companies, throwing supply chains into disarray. (3) China has threatened to disrupt the supply of rare earth elements. China produces more than 90% of the world’s supply and plays a huge role in processing them. (4) Peleton filed confidentially to go public.

Getting Personal

Nothing much to report – things have been busy.

Addendum

Eleven people died this climbing season, the most in recent years.

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19
May 19
Sun

Weekly Wrapup #4

Notes

Politics. Australia’s federal election was held this weekend and, in a shocking result, the Liberal party won re-election and Scott Morrison will continue as Prime Minister. Bookies and pundits alike were predicting a sure Labor victory, but a mixture of complacency, faulty polling, and policy miscalculations appear to have undone Labor leader Bill Shorten. Pocketbooks won out over climate change. (For my non-Australian readers, Labor is left leaning, and Liberals are right leaning.)

+ I don’t closely follow Aussie politics these days, but a Whatsapp group I’m on with a few Aussie mates felt reminiscent in tone of the conversations I was having locally after Trump’s 2016 victory.

+ To the glee of many, former PM Tony Abbott lost his seat to former Olympic medallist, Zali Steggall. Abbott had held the seat for over two decades.

+ Also, Engadine Maccas 1997.

Law. Lots of media attention this week over states passing draconian and extreme anti-abortion laws. In Alabama, a bill was signed into law by its female governor which will outlaw abortion procedures from the moment of conception with no exceptions for rape or incest. The penalty is up to 99 years imprisonment – in other words, a life sentence. Even Trump thinks that goes too far.

+ Under existing precedent, the law is obviously unconstitutional, but the Alabama legislature has made clear that it was designed as a vehicle to press the issue with the Supreme Court in an effort to overturn Roe v. Wade. And they have also made it clear that they don’t really care about the collateral damage that occurs to women in the meantime.

+ The NY Times has a compelling feature about the impact of laws like this on women.

Finance. (1) Uber IPOed. It ended the week below its IPO price with a market cap of about $70bn. One problem was that, in raising billions of dollars in years past, the investors who would normally be investing in the IPO already were shareholders. But folks, it’s early days.

(2) The worst of the 2008/09 financial crisis is now 10 years in the past. That means some metrics on fund returns now look a lot better than they did a couple months ago:

The standard long-term metric used by financial-services companies on your quarterly statements is 10 years. But “recall that before stocks began rising with the start of the long bull market on March 9, 2009, they had fallen sharply.” The S&P 500 plummeted more than 50 percent in the previous two years. But — poof! Thanks to “the arbitrary logic of the calendar,” those miserable bear market figures are no longer incorporated in the 10-year returns. Don’t be misled by great-looking numbers that can provide an incomplete picture.

Startups. A classic article on finding product-market fit.

In other news… (1) Game of Thrones is ending tonight, and based on leaked reports, this earlier comment from showrunner Dan Weiss is looking quaint: “I’m hoping for the Breaking Bad [finale] argument where it’s like, ‘Is that an A or an A+?'”. Uh, yeah. (2) Big Bang Theory wrapped up its run earlier in the week with a touching finale. (3) The Warriors are going to roll through to their fifth straight NBA championship finals. (4) Architect I. M. Pei died. (5) Grumpy Cat died.

Getting Personal

It’s an uncharacteristically rainy and cold May in the Bay Area…

Susanne and I are finally getting around to putting an estate plan in place with an estate attorney. She asked for recommendations from work and received a dozen. After getting quotes and speaking with a few of those attorneys, we settled on one we really liked and who offered us a flat fee billing model.

Estate planning is more than putting a will in place. To execute a will, it needs to go through a probate process, which is expensive and public. To avoid this, assets get placed in a trust, which allows them to be distributed more efficiently and privately. In addition, there are advanced health care directives, HIPAA consents, guardianship nominations, and powers of attorney to consider.

Addendum

In case you haven’t been watching what has been happening to Bitcoin recently…

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12
May 19
Sun

Weekly Wrapup #3

Notes

Health. No one enjoys visits to the dentists, but it turns out it’s not just the fear of physical pain anymore. Some dentists are carrying out unnecessary and invasive procedures to line their own pockets:

Lund extracted the wisdom tooth with no complications, and Mitchell began seeing him regularly. He never had any pain or new complaints, but Lund encouraged many additional treatments nonetheless. A typical person might get one or two root canals in a lifetime. In the space of seven years, Lund gave Mitchell nine root canals and just as many crowns. Mitchell’s insurance covered only a small portion of each procedure, so he paid a total of about $50,000 out of pocket.

As if there wasn’t enough that was wrong with the American healthcare system…

Tech. Chris Hughes, one of Facebook’s numerous wealthy co-founders, penned a long article in the NYT arguing that Facebook should be broken up. One opinion from a friend in a Whatsapp group: “I reckon this will happen, feels inevitable”.

+ There’s certainly a swelling trend towards recognizing the dark side of social media’s impact on society. Perhaps the best place to look is how Silicon Valley workers think about tech and raising their kids. All I know is that our parents didn’t need to deal with this when we were kids – it’s all new ground. (That said, as someone fortunate to have a modem with BBS access in the early 90s, and net access in the mid-90s, I’m sure my parents wouldn’t have been happy to find out that my teenage-self had access to stuff like the Anarchist Cookbook and rotten.com…)

Books. I’ve never read Danielle Steele’s novels, but apparently she has written 179 of them, including one that topped the NY Times bestseller list for a record 381 weeks. How the Hell Has Danielle Steele Managed to Write 179 Books? I’ve read a total of zero books this year. There are two waiting on my nightstand, but I just haven’t been able to make time for it.

Deals. Did you know that Amazon sends out free samples? You don’t even have to be a Prime member. Register here.

In other news… (1) Warriors take out the Rockets in a great series. (2) Uber started trading on Friday. (3) Tariff Man strikes again. (4) The House Judiciary Committee voted to recommend that Attorney General William Barr be held in contempt of Congress.

Getting Personal

Firstly, happy Mother’s Day to all the mums out there!

The weather has finally turned warm in the Bay Area and we felt it was time to replace our trusty 6 year old Weber Q 220 BBQ. We got a lot of mileage out of it, but it has a lot of wear and tear – the igniter is broken and a number of burner holes are now clogged.

After a lot of research and YouTube videos, I settled on the Weber Genesis II E-310 3-burner liquid propane grill. There are several important things in a gas grill, and the Weber has them all: a burner design that gives good heat distribution, thick steel for heat retention, easy to clean (the whole catchment tray is removable), lockable wheels for mobility, and a 10-year warranty. Ace Hardware is also running a promotion that provided free delivery and assembly.

Addendum

Game of Thrones is trending… down

Bonus link: r/freefolk (currently the home of memes pillorying Season 8)

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4
May 19
Sat

Weekly Wrapup #2

Notes

Finance. (1) Unemployment is now at 3.6%, its lowest since 1969. And I didn’t know this was a statistic that people tracked, but the Asian population has an unemployment rate of 2.2%. GDP grew 3.2% in Q1. The Fed held interest rates steady. The Nasdaq closed at a record high.

+ So where’s all this wealth generation going? Not to wages, which only rose 3.2% despite the tight labor market. Rejoice if you’re an asset owner.

+ Meanwhile in China, red flags for the stockmarket (but that’s not the first time we’ve heard that in this cycle…)

+ To me, articles like this are a red flag: U.S. Expansion May Be Nowhere Near an End.

(2) You may have read recently that millennials are having less sex than previous generations. According to Quartz, one hypothesis is that it’s because the tail end of this generation is more risk averse because they don’t need to leave the house to entertain themselves. And relationships are risky. “Some commentators and economists speculate that millennials are more risk averse than previous generations. This is hard to generalize. But one thing sets millennials apart from previous generations is that they benefit from a higher risk-free return from not leaving the house.”

Real Estate. Here are 8 French chateaus that are cheaper than an average Sydney home (A$1m or US$700k).

+ But, look at what’s currently happening in one Sydney suburb… (HT: Kev)

Internet. A story about hiring a hitman on the dark web (Wired).

Deals. (1) From May 5 to May 11, Staples is selling Visa Gift Cards for no activation fee. Buy them with a Chase Ink card and get 5x points. A $200 card nets you $10 in points (or $15 if redeemed for travel).

(2) Until May 14, if you buy 2 $100 Visa Gift Cards (which will cost about $212 including activation fees), you’ll get $15 back. The Chase Freedom card is offering 5x points on grocery stores this quarter, so the net result is $200 in gift cards for $197 plus 1000 Chase Ultimate Rewards points (which can be converted to $10 in cash or redeemed for travel). To get this offer you’ll need to add the offer to you Safeway account via the Safeway mobile app.

In other news… (1) Rod Rosenstein, the Deputy A-G that oversaw most of the Mueller investigation, had enough and resigned. (2) Japan’s Emperor Akihito abdicated from the throne and his country went on a 10-day Golden Week holiday. (3) Venezuela continues to be a basketcase. (4) Uber IPOs next week. (5) Peter Mayhew (Chewbacca) died.

Getting Personal

I work from home a lot these days. That means a lot of conference calls. I hate fiddling around with tangled earphone cords and having them get in the way of the keyboard, and laptop speakers are too tinny, so my favorite device is the Jabra Speak 510 speakerphone. It connects to devices via bluetooth and USB – I just always have it plugged into my laptop. It’s got great volume, noise canceling, and a mute button.

My second favorite device are Airpods. They’re perfect when I need to walk around and not worry about cords getting in the way. Because I mainly use them for calls and not music, the open air design that lets ambient noise through is perfect – especially when I’m outside and need to be aware of my surroundings. I tried the Jabra Elite 65t earbuds, but they really weren’t comfortable and they blocked out too much outside noise.

Addendum

Hagoromo is now being sold by this Korean company…

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3
May 19
Fri

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