In the Bond Market, a Bleak Prognosis for Iraq 
"After the United States helped Iraq renegotiate its leftover debt from the Saddam Hussein era, the Iraqi government issued about $3 billion of new bonds in January 2006. These dollar-denominated bonds pay 2.9 percent twice a year and mature in 2028, paying the face value of $100. To say the least, the market for these bonds is not robust: as of last week, a bond with a face value of $100 was trading at around $60. Professor Greenstone calculated that, from the markets' standpoint, the implied default risk over the life of the bond was about 80 percent. ... Of course, it's worth asking whether bond traders know anything more about Iraq than the pundits do. It's impossible to say with certainty, but the collective wisdom of financial markets has proved remarkably adept at evaluating events and predicting the future, even the turning points of war."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/business/worldbusiness/11view.html?ref=business
"After the United States helped Iraq renegotiate its leftover debt from the Saddam Hussein era, the Iraqi government issued about $3 billion of new bonds in January 2006. These dollar-denominated bonds pay 2.9 percent twice a year and mature in 2028, paying the face value of $100. To say the least, the market for these bonds is not robust: as of last week, a bond with a face value of $100 was trading at around $60. Professor Greenstone calculated that, from the markets' standpoint, the implied default risk over the life of the bond was about 80 percent. ... Of course, it's worth asking whether bond traders know anything more about Iraq than the pundits do. It's impossible to say with certainty, but the collective wisdom of financial markets has proved remarkably adept at evaluating events and predicting the future, even the turning points of war."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/business/worldbusiness/11view.html?ref=business
